Mobile voice volume will overtake fixed in Western Europe by mid-year; Analysys predicts telecoms milestone

LONDON, UK, 7 February 2008 – For the first time, the volume of mobile voice calls will exceed that on traditional fixed networks in Western Europe as a whole, says Analysys, global advisor on telecoms, IT and media (www.analysys.com), ahead of the GSMA Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, 11-14 February.

Analysys Research expects this milestone to take occur by the end of summer this year.

Analysys Research’s Telecoms Market Matrix shows that the proportion of call minutes made from mobiles has increased by 1.4 percentage points each quarter over the last year.

In the UK, where patterns of consumption are close to the European average, mobile voice usage should overtake fixed voice in the second quarter of 2008.

In France, mobile voice usage has already surpassed that of fixed voice, and keeps growing despite the widespread availability of practically free voice over broadband.

On the other hand, mobile voice is not expected to overtake fixed voice in the Italian market until the first quarter of 2009, and the German market – the largest in Western Europe – will not experience this phenomenon for about two years, at current rates of substitution.

“Developed countries tend to have very stable demand for voice,” says Andrew Parkin-White, Prinical Analyst at Analysys Research, “although the volume varies quite significantly between individual countries; perhaps surprisingly, Northern Europeans are generally the most talkative.”

According to Analysys Research’s figures, Portugal, having the lowest voice consumption in Western Europe, was the first country in which mobile overtook fixed, while Sweden, which has one of the highest, will be among the last to change.

“Consumers have relatively constant budgets for voice, and so fixed voice volumes basically reflect the unaffordability of mobile voice. The trick for mobile operators has been to translate stable demand into an affordable proposition – once mobile can meet demand affordably, any kind of competitive pricing for voice on fixed or broadband is largely irrelevant,” explains Rupert Wood, Principal Analyst at Analysys Research.

Analysys, Mason Communications and Catalyst IT Partners, as part of Analysys Mason Group, will be attending GSMA Mobile World congress (formerly 3GSM World Congress) in Barcelona, 11-14 February. Please email briefings {at} analysysmasongroup(.)com to arrange a meeting with one of our analysts or consultants during the event.

For further information or to request a chart to accompany this release, please contact Gina Ghensi press {at} analysys(.)com or telephone +44(0)1223 460600.

NOTE TO EDITORS:
A chart displaying switched fixed and mobile voice, volume of originated traffic, 1Q 2005 – 4Q 2008 is available online at www.analysys.com/fixed_mobile_traffic or send your request to gina.ghensi {at} analysys(.)com

About Analysys’ Telecoms Market Matrix
Analysys’ Telecoms Market Matrix provides a detailed and coherent quarterly view of the overall size, in operational and financial terms, of the main markets enumerated by the EU framework for telecoms regulation the incumbent’s and other operators’ shares of those markets. Since individual national regulators, operators and the EU itself provide only some of this data and they report on different timescales, the aim of Analysys Telecoms Market Matrix is to collate and interpret existing data and, where gaps exist in this, to use a coherent set of models to provide a full view of the relevant markets. The result is a comprehensive view of European fixed and mobile telecoms markets that allows inter-company and inter-market comparisons across a broad range of metrics. For further details on the Telecoms Market Matrix email research {at} analysys(.)com

About Analysys (www.analysys.com)
Analysys provides strategy and management consultancy, information services and start-up support throughout the telecommunications, IT and media sector. Its grasp of market dynamics, coupled with creativity, rigour and renowned objectivity, enables Analysys to consistently exceed the high levels of quality and innovation that its clients expect. The company has over 160 staff worldwide, and, as part of the Analysys Mason Group, has offices in Cambridge, Dublin, Edinburgh, London, Madrid, Manchester, Milan, Paris, Singapore and Washington DC.