Europeans Believe Barack Obama is Best Able to Protect EU’s Interests from Russia While Americans Think John McCain is Better

The events in Russia have been causing concern in both Europe and the U.S. Looking at Russia’s recent actions in Georgia, at least one-third of adults in Great Britain (33%), Spain (34%), Germany (38%), France (39%), and the U.S. (44%) find these actions extremely or very threatening as do half of Italian adults (49%). This is according to a Financial Times/Harris Poll conducted online by Harris Interactive® among a total of 6,313 adults (aged 16-64) within France, Germany, Great Britain, Spain and the United States and adults (aged 18-64) in Italy between September 3 and 15, 2008.

In light of recent events, foreign policy experience of the next U.S. president is something people in these six countries are thinking about too:
At least half of adults in all six countries (between 51% and 69%) say foreign policy experience is just as important as it was before these recent events. Two in five adults in Germany (42%), Italy (39%) and Spain (38%), over one-third of Americans (37%), one-third of Britons (32%) and one-quarter of French adults (26%) all say it is more important that it was before; and,
With this in mind, Europeans believe Barack Obama would be better able to protect Europe’s interests with regard to Russia. Almost two-thirds of French adults (64%), three in five Spaniards (59%) and Germans (57%), just under half of Italians (48%) and 41 percent of Britons all say Obama over John McCain. In the United States, while it is close, it is a different take as 41 percent of Americans say John McCain would be better able to protect Europe with regard to Russia and 37 percent say it is Obama.

There are also some questions about what the European Union should be prepared to do concerning Russia and other former Eastern bloc countries:
People are divided as to what level the European Union should cooperate politically and economically with Russia. Over two in five Germans (45%) and Britons (43%) and over one-third of Italians (36%) say the EU should neither increase nor decrease this cooperation. Half of French and US adults (50% and 49% respectively) and over two in five Spaniards (44%) say economic and diplomatic cooperation should be deceased;
The foreign policy challenge that Russia poses for the European Union is a big one in some countries. Half of adults in France (52%) and Germany (51%) say it is an extremely or very big challenge while over half of adults in Spain (59%), the U.S. (54%), Great Britain (52%) and 43 percent of Italians all say it is a somewhat big challenge;
Regardless of what Russia has done, just one in ten in the European countries (between 7% and 11%) would support more EU spending on defense and less on health and social security to improve the situation in Russia while at least half in each country (between 49% and 75%) would oppose it. One in five Americans (21%) would support this idea while 37 percent would oppose it;
One item to consider when thinking about Russia is that many European Union states rely on Russia for oil and gas supplies. While majorities do agree this is at least a somewhat important factor, at least one quarter in the five European countries (from 24% to 28%) and one in five Americans (18%) say it should not be a factor at all in how the EU should respond to Russia and its military action in Georgia;
There is a high level of uncertainty as to whether the EU and NATO have gone too far in winning over states that used to be in Russia’s sphere of influence as at least one-quarter in all six countries say they are not sure. Two in five adults in France (40%), Italy (40%) Germany (38%) and the United States (38%) all say NATO and the EU did not go too far while one-third of Spaniards (32%) and one-quarter of Britons (26%) say they did;
When it comes to expanding NATO to include Georgia and Ukraine, most people in these six countries are ambivalent about it. Majorities in Great Britain (61%), France (55%), Spain (52%), the U.S. (51%), just under half of Germans (46%) and two in five Italians (39%) neither support nor oppose a NATO expansion to include these two countries; and,
If Russia was to make a similar military move into another Baltic country (Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia) all of who are NATO members, people are divided as to whether troops from their country should defend these states. Half of Germans (50%) and two in five Spaniards (40%) and Italians (39%) would oppose troops from their country defending the Baltic states while two in five French adults (41%) and just over one-third of Americans (37%) and Britons (35%) would support it.

So What?

More people are watching Russia with a wary eye, but this is a different time, and the Cold War “bear” of old is probably still hibernating. Georgia was able to use the media help to garner public support on the world stage. If this was to happen with other countries, would they be as media savvy? And, would the public attention be as quick to rally to their defense? Those facts are unknown right now, but one thing that is known is that people believe Russia as actions are threatening.

With the U.S. election taking place in just a few short weeks, the hope is that the next president will be able to protect the European Union’s interests with regard to Russia. In Europe, the belief is that it would be Barack Obama rather than John McCain, which is different than the American perspective. One wonders if Obama’s recent European tour enhanced his appeal in those countries.

Methodology

This FT/Harris Poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive among a total of 6,313 adults (aged 16-64) within France (1,064), Germany (1,042), Great Britain (1,052), Spain (1,009), and the United States (1,005), and adults (aged 18-64) in Italy (1,141) between September 3 and 15, 2008. Figures for age, sex, education, region and Internet usage were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. A full methodology and data tables are available at www.harrisinteractive.com.These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls and of the British Polling Council. J7033
Q1210, 1215, 1220, 1225, 1230, 1235, 1240, 1245, 1250, 1255

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Harris Interactive Inc. 8/08
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