Obama and McCain Still Neck and Neck

Obama leads by twelve points in the East; McCain leads by eight points in the South

A new Harris Poll finds that if the election were held now, 47 percent of likely voters would vote for Barack Obama and 46 percent would vote for John McCain. This finding is consistent with most other recent polls that show Obama with a small lead or the two candidates very close together (however, the latest ABC TV/Washington Post survey shows Obama 9 points ahead).

These are the results of a Harris Poll of 2,315 adults of whom 1,562 were likely voters, surveyed online between September 15 and 22.

In our previous Harris Polls this election, we focused on registered voters. In this poll and in the remaining polls before the election we are focusing on likely voters, which we defined as registered voters who are highly motivated to vote on or before November 4th. In previous elections there were sometimes substantial differences between the voting intentions of likely voters and registered voters, but in this poll there is no significant difference, except that likely voters are less likely to say they are not sure. Obama’s lead among all registered voters is two percentage points.

Demographic Analysis

Demographic analysis reveals several interesting patterns:
Obama leads by twelve points in the East. McCain leads by eight points in the South. The race is very close in the Midwest and the West.
Obama’s support is strongest among younger voters; he has a 23 point lead among Echo Boomers, those aged 18 to 31. McCain does better among old voters and has a lead of 16 points among Matures, those aged 63 and over.
There is only a very modest “gender gap.” Obama leads by three points among women. McCain leads by two points among men.
Obama has a huge 73 point lead among blacks and a clear 23 point lead among Hispanic voters. McCain leads by 16 points among whites.
Overwhelming majorities of Republicans and Democrats support their candidates. The critical Independent voters are almost equally split (Obama 45%, McCain 43%).
Looking at education levels, McCain does best, with a twelve point lead, among people with only a high school education or less. Obama leads by ten points among college graduates and 20 points among those with a post graduate education.
The race is close among people with household incomes over $50,000 but McCain enjoys a thirteen point lead among people with incomes between $35,000 and $50,000.
Conservatives and Liberals split predictably. Obama has a 22 point lead among moderates.