Obama’s 6 Point Lead Holds Steady

Senator Barack Obama continues to lead Senator John McCain by six percentage points in the latest poll of likely voters. This lead has not changed since The Harris Poll®, conducted one week earlier.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll, a new nationwide survey of 2,303 U.S. adults, of whom 1,695 are likely voters, surveyed online between October 20 and 27, 2008 by Harris Interactive®.

This new poll shows Obama leading McCain by 50% to 44% of likely voters with 2% supporting Ralph Nader and 1% supporting the Libertarian candidate, Bob Barr.

Other interesting results of this new Harris Poll include:
Among those who have already voted (12% of likely voters), Obama leads McCain by 9 points – 51% to 42%;
15% of those who voted for George W. Bush in 2004 are likely to vote for Obama, compared to 11% of those who voted for John Kerry who are now likely to vote for McCain;
Among those likely voters who voted in a primary or caucus, half (51%) are likely to vote for Obama while 44% are likely to vote for McCain. McCain edges Obama, 45% to 44% among those likely voters who did not vote in a primary or caucus;
While most of those who supported Hillary Clinton in the primary election support Obama, 18% are likely voters for McCain;
Obama voters are more likely (by 51% to 47%) than McCain supporters to say they are “absolutely certain” of how they will vote; and,
Obama voters are more likely than McCain supporters (by 73% to 65%) to be “extremely interested” in the presidential election.

So What?

As the countdown to the election gets closer, the likelihood of John McCain closing the gap gets smaller by the day. If there is any good news for McCain it is that Obama has not been able to widen his lead, and that very large numbers of likely voters are not “absolutely certain” of their current preferences. But, there is also the interest factor and, if those who are extremely interested do come out and vote, this again tilts the race in Obama’s favor.

Methodology

This Harris Poll® was conducted online within the United States between October 20 and 27, 2008 among 2,303 adults (aged 18 and over), of whom 1,695 were likely voters. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. Full data tables and methodology for this study can be found at www.harrisinteractive.com.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. J35170B
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About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a long and rich history in multimodal research, powered by our science and technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris Interactive serves clients globally through our North American, European and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

Harris Interactive Inc. 10/08
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