The Government’s Digital Britain report has proposed the target of a universal broadband service delivering at least 2 megabits per second (Mbps) throughout the UK. The idea has been heavily criticised as too little too late. But Point Topic’s specialist broadband research team strongly supports it.
We believe that investing to deliver 2Mbps could provide the platform for full next-generation broadband in areas where it wouldn’t otherwise happen for many years, says Tim Johnson, Chief Analyst at Point Topic.
Lord Carter, Minister for Communications Technology and Broadcasting, suggests in the report that broadband should be subject to a ‘Universal Service Commitment’ (USC) requiring suppliers to provide a minimum of 2 megabits per second (Mbps) downstream speed throughout the UK.
At first sight two megabits looks too modest, agrees Johnson. More than two-thirds of the homes in the UK can already get 2 megabits if they want it and it is far short of what is available in the more favoured areas and in many other countries. Why aim for only 2 megabits when Virgin Media is already offering 50 to cable customers?
On the other hand, millions of British homes in the slowband zones cannot get 2Mbps today and have no prospect of doing so in future without major investment by somebody. What’s more, a 2 megabit USC will drive investment that can in fact support much higher speeds, Johnson believes.
The only sensible way to provide 2 megabits in slowband areas, at least as far as the telephone network is concerned, is to invest in bringing fibre to BT’s street cabinets, he says.
FTTC (for fibre-to-the-cabinet) is the key next-generation access technology which will support download speeds of 40Mbps or more. So the apparently cautious requirement for 2Mbps will help to provide financial support and a market driver for next-generation access. Looking at it this way, the pundits who protest that two megabits is too modest are missing the point.
Delivering a universal 2 Mbps service could require rolling out FTTC over as much as 30% of the country, covering more than 7 million homes, according to Point Topic’s research. The Digital Britain report suggests a much lower figure, less than 2 million homes, but Point Topic believes this is a considerable under-estimate, partly because of the need to provide 2Mbps reliably, not just occasionally.
A 2 megabit USC will be worthless unless it provides for a decent quality of service, Johnson declares. This is not about being able to get 2 megabits at 2 am. In fact, a reasonable target would be to get the USC minimum for at least 99.9% of the time. That would mean falling below the minimum for about a minute a day during the peak period.
Recent research published by Ofcom shows that at present average speeds in peak hours are more than 30% below off-peak speeds. As would be expected, speeds and other performance metrics are at their worst just when people most want to use the internet.
Setting standards like these will mean a radical change in the whole approach to services over the internet. From the start the internet has always provided a best efforts service rather than guaranteed performance. This will continue to be the case as far as the global internet is concerned. But providing some quality-of-service guarantees over the ISP connection will give end-users a much more satisfactory experience with many applications – something which the Ofcom speed research shows that they want.
Making quality of service part of the USC as well as a minimum speed also means that all broadband users throughout the UK could stand to benefit, not just those who live in the slowband zones today. One way or another, all users would have to pay a little more for their broadband because of a Universal Service Commitment, Johnson acknowledges. It will be a little bit more popular if it includes features that benefit everybody.
Digital Britain: The Interim Report, DCMS and BERR, January 2009, available at http://www.culture.gov.uk/what_we_do/broadcasting/5631.aspx
UK Broadband Speeds 2008, Ofcom, 8 January 2009, available at http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/telecoms/reports/bbspeed_jan09/
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For more information please contact:
Point Topic: Oliver Johnson
Email: oliver {at} point-topic(.)com
Tel. +44 (0) 20 3301 3303
About Point Topic
http://www.point-topic.com
Point Topic is an analyst company focusing entirely on broadband. Point
Topic’s international services have a global reputation for providing the
most up-to-date and authoritative user statistics, supplier profiles and
applications reports on DSL, FTTx, cable and other broadband services
worldwide.
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