Broadband forecasts show Digital Britain challenge

Broadband is showing a healthier glow than expected in the UK, as in many countries around the world. As a result of good figures for the first half of 2009, Point Topic, the broadband data specialist, has increased its forecasts for broadband connections, both for the year as a whole and forward to 2014.

Britain added 445,000 net new broadband lines in the first half of 2009 to reach over 17.8 million in total, about 100,000 more than Point Topic forecast at the beginning of the year. The number of net additions forecast for 2009 is now 900,000, a welcome 240,000 (36%) more than before.

Looking further ahead Point Topic now projects over 23 million broadband lines in the UK by the end of 2013, nearly 1.2 million more than in its last forecast.

Set against the targets in the Government’s new Implementation Plan for Digital Britain, the statistics and forecasts show how far there is to go. One key objective is to raise digital participation. Point Topic’s figures show there are still over 9 million ‘no-net’ homes today and the number is falling only slowly. Thus even by 2014 there will still be 6.5 million homes without internet access.

According to the Implementation Plan, funding of up to £12m over three years will be made available to promote digital participation from the Universal Service provision announced in Budget 2009.

“Allowing only twelve million to get more homes online looks pretty weak when you consider the size of the task on one side and the potential benefits on the other,” remarks Tim Johnson, Chief Analyst at Point Topic.

There is a long way to go to meet the Implementation Plan target of 90% coverage of next-generation broadband by 2017 as well. Coverage is actually negligible today although it is expected to increase quickly over the next year and Point Topic forecasts it will pass 50% by 2014. At that rate the 2017 target should be achievable, although it will depend on some kind of subsidy to reach the more remote areas.

“We think it’s going to be easier to build networks than to change people’s minds,” says Johnson.

Point Topic has factored in the announcements made so far and assuming some level of intervention from current and future Governments it expects there to be over 7 million next-generation fibre lines in service by the end of 2014. By then there will over 20 million households and 1.7 million business premises with one or more broadband lines. Next-generation access will have 30% of the market, with cable claiming 21% and DSL down to 49% as it loses market share to NGA.

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For background data and charts please contact:

Point Topic: Oliver Johnson

Email: oliver {at} point-topic(.)com

Tel. +44 (0) 20 3301 3303

About Point Topic

http://www.point-topic.com

Point Topic is an analyst company focusing entirely on broadband. Point Topic’s international services have a global reputation for providing the most up-to-date and authoritative user statistics, supplier profiles and applications reports on DSL, FTTx, cable and other broadband services worldwide.

Point Topic, reg. in England 3503830. 61 Gray’s Inn Road, London WC1X 8TL.